Tuesday, May 17, 2011

NATIONAL SALES DOWN, AVERAGE PRICE UP: CREA


It seems to be a consistent trend. Sales remain flat or decline, while the average selling price rises.

It seems to be a consistent trend. Sales remain flat or decline, while the average selling price rises.

The latest report from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) finds that seasonally adjusted sales activity edged down in April by 4.4% from March, while actual sales activity on a year-over-year basis dropped 14.7%.  The largest declines in sales activity occurred, as expected, in larger urban centers, such as Vancouver, Fraser Valley and Toronto.

Despite the falling demand, the national average selling price in April rose to $372,544, up 8% from the same month last year. That marks the third consecutive month that the average price has increased by 8% on a year-over-year basis in 2011.  The national average price has been experiencing upward pressure largely because of high-end home sales in Vancouver.

CREA economist Gregory Klump said in a statement released Tuesday that the softening in sales activity is a product of the mortgage rule changes introduced earlier this year. These changes, like the ones last year, pulled sales forward as worried homebuyers raced to beat the March 18 deadline.

“Last April, several transitory factors artificially boosted sales.  This included the impending tightening of mortgage rules, speculation about higher interest rates and the looming introduction of the HST in some provinces.  This year, additional measures to tighten mortgage rules were implemented in March and the other transitory factors were absent,” said Klump.

“This makes it difficult to compare the two months in order to reliably gauge the impact of the latest round of mortgage rule changes.”

One other factor the housing market will have to deal with as demand falls is rising supply. The number of new home listings in April rose 1.3% from March on a seasonally adjusted basis.

In combination with fewer sales, the national sales-to-new listings ratio came in at 52.5% in April, down from 55.7% in March.

Another gauge of the market is the number of months of inventory, which represents how many months it would take to sell the current amount of inventory at the current rate of sales. The national measurement came in at six months at the end of April, up from 5.7 months in March.

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